This blog is picking up where my previous blog entry “Optimum Trajectory vs Great Circle Distance” left off. Today we have a compromise text for SES 2+ which contains only limited support for a much needed reform for the European airspace. A4E has shifted its focus as a result towards ensuring that reforms are implemented that can deliver a seamless, digital, European sky. This reformed airspace and the way it will be used would allow airlines to fly more efficiently and could help bring about 7% savings in carbon emissions.
We are happy to see our view is supported by the latest Performance Review Report (PRR) of the EUROCONTROL Performance Review Commission (PRC) stating that:
• “punctuality levels in Europe decreased further in 2023 reaching the worst level on record over the past 20 years”
• “En-route ATFM delays in 2023 were the second highest value over the past 20 years: higher than in 2019, despite traffic levels still 8.5% below 2019”
And than there is a decarbonisation potential estimated:
• “ATM-related benefit pool of approximately 9% for the EUROCONTROL area in 2023”
And finally, the PRC believes that:
“there is also a need to rethink the way the system is presently operated, particularly with a view to the still existing considerable level of fragmentation”
At the core of these reform efforts is the “Optimum Trajectory Concept”. This concept would see a paradigm shift in how airspace is used and flights are flown in Europe:
1. Airlines plan their routes, otherwise known as trajectories, based on their operational and environmental needs
2. Air Navigation Service Providers (ANSPs) and the Network Manager (NM) consider the airline trajectories as their target and do whatever is necessary to help achieve them
The first part seems to be obvious and can be implemented today. Unfortunately, airline flight planning is defined by a multitude of restrictions based on what ANSPs and the NM think where and when they should provide capacity. Yes, their thinking is based on experience and historic data but they start from a point that does not involve consideration of the needs of their customers i.e. airlines.
Using optimum trajectories as starting points for the planning process will promote fuel efficiency from a flight planning perspective and fleet planning perspective. Why? Airlines are in the business of transporting passengers and cargo and like every other business, they strive to minimise operational costs. For airlines, fuel is their largest cost so they naturally want to use as little of it as possible. Using less fuel means less carbon emissions. Add onto this existing European sustainability regulations and market based measures, airlines are sharply focused on saving as much fuel as possible.
The second part establishes stable network operations and capacity provision based on what airlines require. It results in a predictable performance for the majority of flights and leaves room for coordination in case of unforeseen disturbances. For ANSPs, airports and the NM it allows for a proper allocation of resources in advance – assuming there is appropriate collaboration and planning.
Overall, the Optimum Trajectory Concept would support efficient use of airspace and would minimise CO2 emissions.
Is there something we cand do today that could already reap early benefits of the Optimum Trajectory Concept? Yes. Currently, we have an 8-week rolling plan based on ANSP and airport planning and, to some extent, airline schedules. All of this is compiled by the EURCONTROL Network Manager into a rolling plan (Network Operations Plan) outlining the capacity needs of airlines and capacity that will be supplied by ANSPs and airports – including an assessment whether and where improvements need to be made.
To build on this further, there needs to be the right data available and then used in a collaborative manner. Currently, not all data available is at the required level of detail for a perfect result i.e. airline optimal 4D-trajectories based on an unrestricted airspace.
While the data may not quite be where we want it to be, we can look to get the most out of the rolling Network Operations Plan. This combined effort of airlines, the Network, ANSPs, airports and military aviation results in a slightly more efficient use of airspace, reduced emissions and less delays for our passengers. Underpinning these efforts is the optimum trajectory concept –
How do we improve this to get us closer to a full realisation of optimum trajectory? As a first step the existing planning process would need only one important change. It needs to start with initial trajectory/flow data based on weather only. This shift would need to come with the acceptance by all participants that trajectories and flows are not set in stone. They can and will change over time e.g. based on changing weather conditions or non-avoidable external impacts. But every iteration will come up with a more likely result compared to the one before, as well as better alignment between capacity and demand.
When we look more closely at what the starting point for planning should be, this will be airline optimum trajectories. Over time these optimum trajectories would include agreed and unavoidable restrictions outside of weather (e.g. military restrictions, capacity shortages etc.).
Here the Network Manager (NM) comes into play managing the developing network. The NM in its role needs to identify bottlenecks, analyse the impact of change and coordinate the development of mitigation measures. This includes safety (strategic deconflicting) or minimising the impact any restriction stemming from military activity might have; whilst also ensuring the effective achievement of military training targets to give one example.
A final word on the regulatory framework below SES 2+. The paradigm shift we need is not only within how we plan and execute flights. We also need to “update” the performance indicators measuring the Network Manager and ANSP performance. They need to be fit for purpose in an environment reflecting the paradigm shift. But this is perhaps something for another time and another blog.